The extent of the economic shock will depend on how central banks respond
Surging energy costs are in many respects an expression of the same phenomenon driving supply-chain backlogs all over the world. An unexpectedly strong rebound in demand has run headlong into stagnant supply. Disruptions, such as shortfalls in hydroelectric-power production caused by droughts, have exacerbated the shortages. So has the rush to boost low inventories in response to the energy crunch. But surging fuel prices are also more ominous than supply-chain woes.
The contribution of energy to inflation will begin to fade once prices plateau—as they may in coming months, and even sooner if winter proves no colder than usual. Recent analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs, a bank, suggests that the effect of energy costs on America’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 2.15 percentage points in September and will likely rise to 2.5 percentage points by the end of this year—taking the headline rate to 5.
Yet the researchers also note that consumption tends to fall by more in response to rising fuel costs than you might expect given the share of energy in budgets. That seems to be because energy shocks tend to depress sentiment. James Hamilton of the University of California, San Diego, studies historical oil shocks and finds that a 20% rise in the real price of energy is associated with a 15-point drop in an index of consumer confidence.
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