Emissions models can understate the difficulty of rapidly reducing carbon dioxide this decade
CLIMATEWIRE | The sudden unveiling of the Senate climate bill two weeks ago launched a race among emissions modelers. Their calculations, and extrapolations, estimated that the “Inflation Reduction Act” would spur a rapid deceleration of carbon dioxide — about a 40 percent reduction over seven years.Emissions modeling comes with caveats and limitations.
Who’s doing the modeling, and what did they find? Three groups have put out emissions models that have been widely cited by lawmakers, advocates and the press in recent weeks. To take a prominent example: Most models run simulations in which oil prices are high and low, because that can have a big impact on the rate of electric vehicle adoption.
Take the example of electric vehicles. Some EVs are already cheaper to own over the course of their lifetimes than gasoline-powered cars and trucks. Add the bill’s proposed federal tax incentives for EVs into the models, and most predict people will buy EVs en masse. Modelers try to solve this conundrum. In the electric vehicle scenario, they might cap the annual growth of EV sales. Rhodium accounts for factors like luggage capacity, which has been shown to be a large consideration among potential EV buyers.
But whether the U.S. can actually build the amount of transmission needed to facilitate that level of renewable development is an open question. Transmission lines often encounter “not in my backyard” opposition, making permitting difficult. When they cross state lines, the question of who pays to build them becomes complicated.
A real world failure to solve transmission constraints would slow the rate of renewable development, he said. They are highly sensitive to changes in energy prices, with different scenarios illustrating big swings in decarbonization based on factors like the price of renewable components, or natural gas and oil. The reliance on cost inputs to drive outcomes also makes them useful for assessing the impact of federal legislation like the “Inflation Reduction Act,” which uses tax credits to encourage technology shifts.
Jenkins echoed that assessment, saying the modeling shows that people and businesses have a powerful financial incentive to overcome the barriers holding back the clean energy transition.
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