How manufacturing might take off in Africa

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How manufacturing might take off in Africa
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Africa will not get rich by producing only for itself. To find larger markets, firms must export to the world

of development economics and the father of African nationalism did not take long to fall out. Arthur Lewis had made his name studying industrial revolutions. Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana’s first prime minister, had made his resisting British rule. On independence in 1957 Nkrumah invited Lewis to be his adviser.

Yet a transformation of sorts had already begun well before covid-19. The proportion of Africans working on farms fell from 66% in 2000 to just under 58% in 2015. Most of these people flowed into informal services or petty manufacturing, such as taxis or roadside carpentry, where they earn more than farmers. They do not represent the industrial revolution of which policymakers dream. Yet beneath that broad trend lies a myriad of stories.

Expanding markets create economies of scale. Many of Africa’s manufacturers began life as trading firms, switching from imports to local production. The same logic is pulling foreign companies to the continent. Consultants at McKinsey estimate that Chinese firms handled 12% of Africa’s industrial production in 2017, employing several million people. Only a few were eyeing exports to the West. Instead, 93% of their revenues came from local and regional sales.

So African countries are scouting out a new path. “The scope for classic labour-intensive, export-oriented industrialisation is narrower now,” says Yaw Ansu, who advises the minister of finance in Ghana. “But countries like us can compensate by basing our model on adding value to our agriculture and natural resources.” One example is Blue Skies, a company near Accra. Its workers dice fruit sold in European shops.

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