When China began tracing infections more carefully, its fatality rate fell
AS THE NUMBER of deaths among people infected by the new coronavirus mounts, it is tempting to divide that figure by the number of reported cases and conclude that the result is the fatality rate. Apply such maths to the world’s total of confirmed cases and deaths on March 11th and you get a fatality rate of 3.6%. But this figure, which epidemiologists call the “naive” case fatality rate, may be wrong in two different ways.
The researchers applied the results from the ship to data on covid-19 cases and deaths in China. They conclude that the fatality rate for covid-19 in the country’s outbreak was 0.5%. For comparison, that is five times the fatality rate for the seasonal flu in America.
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