Historically accurate model predicts 'Trump in a landslide' for 2020 election
Though President Donald Trump currently trails several leading Democratic candidates in early national polls, a research firm with a historically accurate model has him winning the 2020 election by a wide margin.
"In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model, we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model's first incorrect election prediction," wrote Mark Zandi, Dan White and Bernard Yerbos of Moody's Analytics. Moody's uses three models to come up with its forecast; in each case, Trump gets at least 289 Electoral College votes.
"If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition," the reportThe"stock market" model relies on fewer economic variables than the pocketbook model and is the least favorable model for Trump, but it still currently predicts a victory for the president. Meanwhile, the"unemployment model" predicts a more comfortable win for Trump than the stock market model.
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