What to expect from the next stimulus bill
Dan Clifton, the head of Strategas Research Partners’ policy research unit, is a hot commodity this year. Fluent in the ways of Washington, he is an astute reader of regulatory and legislative trends that will affect the markets.
Barron’s: The pandemic is still upon us and states are beginning to shut down again. Will we see a third round of stimulus? The Paycheck Protection Program expires on Aug. 8. It needs to be restructured and replenished, because without it employers will be free to lay off employees. About $300 billion of new money can go into that. The really big fight will be on unemployment insurance, but there’s definitely room for compromise. Maybe people will get an extra $300 a week, instead of $600 a week, plus a signing bonus. The big question is whether there will be rebate checks as with the Cares Act.
Exactly. At Strategas, we really try to match up financial market indicators with political data. The first metric is, we watch the S&P 500 90 days into the election. So the clock starts Aug. 3. We’ve gone back 100 years on this. If stocks are higher in that 90-day period, the incumbent party has won 87% of the time. If they’re lower, the opposition has won.
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