There is increasing evidence that New York City and New York state are turning a corner in their efforts to fight back COVID-19, and the timing suggests that the shifts may be a result of social distancing measures, NateSilver538 writes.
Furthermore, changes in the share of positive tests in New York state aremerely a reflection of where in New York those tests are being conducted. Since upstate New York has a lower rate of positive tests than New York City, for example, doing more tests upstate but fewer in New York City could artificially depress the statewide positive test rate. That is not what’s happening here, however.
In New York City — applying a trend line to smooth out slight fluctuations from day to day — the share of positive tests has declined from a peak of around 57 percent on March 30 to around 42 percent now. In five suburban counties that are part of the— Suffolk and Nassau Counties on Long Island, and Westchester, Rockland and Putnam Counties in the Hudson Valley — positives have fallen from a peak of around 50 percent on April 1 to 38 percent now.
In upstate New York, the rate of positive tests was never as high as it was in the city or the suburbs, but it also hasn’t declined as much. The five New York City boroughs have also had different trajectories. Queens had the highest peak, but has since seen the steepest decline.
If the peak in the rate of positive tests came on or around March 31, it’s likely that the peak in actualcame sooner than that — probably two or perhaps even three weeks sooner, given the lag between
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