Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate of the peak U.K. interest rate, even as it forecasts a quarter-point increase by the Bank of England on Thursday.
Economists James Moberly and Sven Jari Stehn say the U.K. central bank will take rates to 5.5%, from 5.25%, but no longer see one additional rate hike in November.
However, not every new development was dovish, as the latest private sector pay numbers came in above the Bank of England’s forecasts. Looking to November, the Goldman team say the Bank of England will want to go on hold once wages and services inflation show clearer signs of cooling. The August wage growth and September services inflation numbers will be particularly important, they add.
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