Goodbye, baseball.
When air heats up, molecules move faster and away from each other, making the air less dense. Baseballs launched off a bat go farther through thinner air because there’s less resistance to slow the ball. Just a little bit farther can mean the difference between a homer and a flyout, said Alan Nathan, a University of Illinois physicist who wasn’t part of the Dartmouth study.
Non-climate factors contribute even more to the barrage of balls flying out of the park, scientists and baseball veterans said. The biggest is the ball and the size of the stitches, Nathan said, and MLB made slight adjustments to deaden the ball prior to the 2021 season. Others include batters' recent attention to launch angle; stronger hitters; and faster pitches. The study started after the end of baseball's infamous steroids era saw a spike in home runs.
After a 1-0 victory in Coors Field, Colorado Rockies reliever Brent Suter said the study, which mentions more than 500 home runs since 2010, rings true to him. Mankin called what's happening “a fingerprint of climate change on our recreation." Callahan said what's been seen so far is nothing compared to projections of hundreds of extra homers in the future.
Because baseball has so many statistics and analytics, such as the tracking system Statcast, trends can be seen more easily than other effects of climate change, Mankin said. Still, the scientists can’t point to a single homer and say that’s a warming-aided home run. It's a detail that can be only seen in the more than 63,000 homers hit since 2010.
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