Policy elites in the U.S., Europe, and Asia prefer damaging populist policies to the hard work of forging consensus necessary to promote both national and global prosperity. Hard times are coming, writes James Rogan.
The first shots in a global trade war among Japan, South Korea, the countries of the European Union, and the United States are being fired. The"Buy America" green energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act are protectionist. The provisions are inconsistent with the rules of the World Trade Organization. Buy America is inflationary and reduces the standards of living for most Americans. Even prominent economists associated with the Democratic Party are critical of Buy America.
For industries that have high carbon energy inputs into the cost of production, European carbon taxes raise significantly the cost of doing business. The aluminum, iron, steel, cement, chemical, and fertilizer sectors will be hurt. Jobs will be sacrificed. Inflation will be higher. To compensate for the economic and social costs of the carbon taxes, more generous social welfare spending will be forthcoming. Fiscal deficits will be higher. A negative economic feedback loop is inevitable.
A cold economic winter is descending on America as well. A recession is coming. Interest rates are rising. Rates will stay high for a long time. Scarce capital is being destroyed in the rush to a green economy which is a fool’s journey for the next decade and almost certainly longer. President Joe Biden’s protectionism and favoritism for unions exacerbate inflationary pressures and destroy jobs.
The wealthy nations of the world should cooperate. But conflict, not compromise, will be the path chosen. Politicians will make other nations and peoples the bogey man. Policy elites in the U.S., Europe, and Asia prefer damaging populist policies to the hard work of forging consensus necessary to promote both national and global prosperity.
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