German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, rose more than anticipated in February, pointing to no let-up in stubborn cost pressures and pushing up European Central Bank rate hike expectations.
Underlying pressures have also likely further intensified, said Commerzbank economic researcher Ralph Solveen, with core inflation - excluding energy and food prices - rising to an estimated 5.8% from 5.6%.
Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer told Reuters that there have been two inflation waves. The first one was driven by energy prices and the second one by material inputs, which are not ebbing. Now he expects a third inflation wave, driven by higher wages. There will one or two years of higher wage growth, which will stabilize consumption, compensating for the loss in purchasing power in the last three years, the economist said.
"If the increase in wages just compensates for the loss in purchasing power, the ECB won't need to act more aggressively," Brzeski said.The surprise inflation figures from Europe's largest economy come a day after two of the euro zone's biggest economies -"From the perspective of the ECB, this clearly biases this risk to another 50bp hike in May, after the well-telegraphed 50bp in March," said JPMorgan economist Greg Fuzesi.
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