Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Pound underperformed after weak UK Q4 GDP reinforced expectations for further Bank of England rate cuts. Markets price a high probability of a March cut and around 50 bps of easing over twelve months.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that the Pound underperformed after weak UK Q4 GDP reinforced expectations for further Bank of England rate cuts. Markets price a high probability of a March cut and around 50 bps of easing over twelve months.
Upcoming UK labor data, CPI, retail sales and PMI are seen as key for BOE policy and GBP direction.Soft growth and key UK data'GBP underperformed last week as disappointing UK Q4 real GDP growth reinforced the case for additional Bank of England rate cuts. The swaps curve implies 74% odds of a 25bps rate cut to 3.50% at the next March 19 BOE meeting and a total of nearly 50bps of easing in the next twelve months.''Slower UK wage growth and inflation this week can cement a BOE rate cut next month and further weigh on GBP.''In line with the BOE’s forecast, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.1% for a third straight month in December, and private sector regular pay is projected to ease to 3.4% y/y vs. 3.7% in November.''Headline CPI is expected to fall to 3.0% y/y vs. 3.4% in December due to lower utility prices. Core CPI is also expected to decline to 3.0% y/y vs. 3.2% in December, while services CPI is seen at 4.3% y/y vs. 4.5% in December.''The UK January retail sales and February PMI reports will offer a timely update on economic activity.'
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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Flattens around 20-day EMA ahead of UK employment dataThe GBP/USD pair trades flat around 1.3640 during the early European trading session on Monday. Cable trades calm as investors await the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending December, which is scheduled for Tuesday.
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GBP: Data and politics weigh on PoundING’s Francesco Pesole highlights a heavy UK data calendar, with jobs and inflation likely to confirm cooling labour conditions and subdued core services inflation. If trends persist into March, he sees a Bank of England rate cut as increasingly likely.
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EUR/GBP trades lower as Eurozone Industrial Production disappoints, UK data awaitedThe Euro (EUR) edges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday amid thin market conditions. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8689, remaining confined within its week-old trading range.
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GBP/JPY slips below 208.50 as BoJ-BoE policy gap weighs, UK jobs eyedThe GBP/JPY cross meets with a fresh supply in the vicinity of mid-209.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday and snaps a two-day winning streak. Spot prices drop to the 208.25 region in the last hour, stalling the recent recovery from a nearly two-month low, touched last Thursday.
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When is the UK employment data and how could it affect GBP/USD?The United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending December is scheduled to be published today at 07:00 GMT.
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GBP: Data-driven rate cut risks weighCommerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen highlights that recent UK data have become crucial after the Bank of England’s narrow decision to keep rates unchanged. She argues that labour market and inflation releases could significantly move Pound exchange rates.
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