Food security: New tool can forecast foodinsecurity up to 30 days in advance nresearchnews SciReports
and the occurrence of Ramadan—as food consumption patterns within much of each country are altered during this month of the Islamic calendar—throughout this period. They then used their tool to estimate the prevalence of households at risk of insufficient access to food between October 2021 and February 2022.
The authors found that their tool was able to forecast the prevalence of food insecurity within Yemen and Syria with 99% accuracy one day into the future and with 72% and 47% accuracy, respectively, 30 days into the future. However, they found that for the remaining four countries, which had less available food consumption data than Syria and Yemen, the tool's predictions were not as accurate. This highlights that the tool's forecasts are more accurate when using food consumption data collected at regular intervals over long periods of time and across a broad range of geographic areas.
The authors suggest that their tool could complement existing techniques for modeling food insecurity by providing rapidly available forecasts using real-time data. Their tool's predictions could be further improved by incorporating mobile phone data or automated text mining of news, they add.
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