An unemployment rate of 32.1 percent would be more than 7 points higher than its Great Depression–era peak
Expect to see more of this. Photo: William Campbell/Corbis via Getty Images Ever since the novel coronavirus escaped containment in China earlier this year, Wall Street’s economic projections have been plagued by misplaced optimism. In the first week of February, the investment management company Invesco projected that by summer the U.S.
Hooper wasn’t alone. S&P Global predicted the outbreak would “stabilize globally in April 2020, with virtually no new transmissions in May.” On February 12, ten days after the New York Times published a report headlined “Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say,” the three major U.S. stock-market indexes hit all-time highs.
Since then, JPMorgan revised its GDP estimates to negative-4 percent in the first quarter and negative-14 in the second — and then to negative-10 and negative-25, respectively. Goldman’s growth projections have similarly plunged to negative-6 percent and negative-24.Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis projected Monday that job losses from the coronavirus recession would reach 47 million and push America’s unemployment rate to 32.
The St. Louis Fed’s projection is just a rough estimate, and comes with significant caveats. For one, the study was largely conducted before last week’s stimulus bill was passed, and thus, does not account for its effects. The report also did not attempt to project the number of Americans who would stop seeking work out of discouragement, thereby technically dropping out of the labor force and disappearing from the headline unemployment number.
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