EUR/USD: Limited downside potential over medium-term – MUFG EURUSD CPI Bonds UnitedStates Banks
The 10-year yield is oscillating around the 4.00% level but has corrected lower from the recent high of 4.20% which technically is looking like another rejection by the market of levels over 4.00%. Of course, a strong CPI print could see the market quickly becoming more comfortable with consolidating at levels over 4.00%.
The spread over the 10-year German bund is currently at around 150 bps having been as narrow as close to 100 bps in April. The current spread is consistent with the level that prevailed in 2015-2016 when EUR/USD was around trading around 1.1000. Our forecasts assume there is no further widening from these levels favouring the US which should limit the downside for EUR/USD over the medium-term.Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.
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