EUR/USD: Euro bulls struggle near 1.0900 as US NFP, ECB President Lagarde’s speech loom – by anilpanchal7 EURUSD ECB Fed NFP RiskAversion
On Thursday, Eurozone Retail Sales reprints 0.0% MoM and -2.9% YoY figures for May, versus 0.2% and -2.7% expected respectively. However, Germany’s Factory Orders jump 6.4% MoM in May versus 1.5% expected and -0.4% prior whereas the yearly figures improve to -4.3% from -9.9% previous readouts.
On the other hand, US ADP Employment Change marked the largest one-month increase since February 2022, to 497K for June versus 228K expected and 267K prior . That said, the ISM Services PMI also improved to 53.9 for the said month from 50.3 in May, versus the market expectation of 51.0. Further, the Challenges Job Cuts also slumps to 40.709K from 80.089K previous readings. However, the JOLTS Job Openings drops to 9.8M from 10.103M, compared to analysts’ estimation of 9.93M.
It’s worth noting that the interest rate futures suggest nearly 85% chance for a 0.25% increase in the interestfrom the ECB and the Fed both during July monetary policy meeting. However, the odds of witnessing a policy pivot have been on the spike after the US central bank paused the rate lift trajectory in July.
Alternatively, looming recession in Germany prods the ECB hawks even if the most of them keeps backing further rate hikes, at least in 2023. Elsewhere, geopolitical fears emanating from China, as well as the dragon nation’s economic concerns, join the strong Treasury bond yields in the US and Europe to prod the EUR/USD bulls. That said, the downbeat performance of Wall Street benchmarks also portrays the risk-off mood in the market. However, the US Dollar Index fails to cheer the haven status as market players brace for the headline
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