Many social factors are hard to quantify—but data analysis is trying to fill the gap
Social issues can range from the impact of demography on a firm to its relations with the local community. Moody’s, a rating agency, says that $8trn of the debt it rates is exposed to social risks—four times that exposed to environmental ones.
Some investors use social factors in the hope of improving the world: these invest in small listed firms, such as educational outfits, or in private projects. Others do so to improve returns. But there is little consensus on which social risks matter. A green asset manager can assess a firm’s carbon footprint; few gauges exist for socially minded investors. One exception is employee satisfaction, which studies link to a company’s performance.
Whizzy data analysis might fill the gap. Thinknum Alternative Data, a research firm, looks at online reviews of companies written by staff members. Before employees at Wells Fargo, a bank, were found to be setting up fake customer accounts, they were complaining about having to do so. RepRisk, another data firm, analyses news articles and think-tank reports.
A third data firm, Truvalue Labs, assesses the sentiment of news coverage. Using this, Mr Serafeim and researchers from State Street, an asset manager, found that positive coverage of a company’s response to covid-19 was linked to smaller-than-average subsequent declines in stockmarket returns in February and March, controlling for size and industry.
The rigour is helpful, but the challenge will be showing that such data can be consistently useful for investors. New social risks will arise as lockdowns end—for instance, relating to how companies make offices covid-proof. Plenty still to keep the number-crunchers on their toes.
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