A climate model has forecast where the most extreme heat will occur during the current El Niño phase, including the Caribbean and the South China Sea
Map showing predicted surface temperature anomalies in 2024 under a strong El Niño. Blue dots show the areas where record-breaking heat is predictedwill have their hottest 12-month period on record this year due to the ongoing El Niño weather pattern, according to a forecast by a climate model.
Global surface temperatures across much of the world are currently at an all-time high. The main reason for this is the warming caused by carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. But on top of this, a strong El Niño phase that began in the middle of 2023 is pushing up temperatures even further.
This means the global average surface temperature usually hits record levels during El Niño phases and then declines during La Niña. “There’s a real value to having this kind of a warning, even if it’s not precisely timed to a particular season,” says McPhaden. “It gives you some lead time for preparing on how best to protect lives, property, living marine resources and economic development.”
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