Fifteen economists said they expect the economy to shrink sharply in the second quarter because of the coronavirus outbreak, ending the longest expansion in U.S. history.
The coronavirus pandemic is plunging the United States into a recession that could be as sharp as the 2008 financial crash, although the economy will likely rebound before President Donald Trump faces re-election in November, according to economists polled byIn a poll conducted on Monday, all 15 economists said they expected the economy to shrink sharply in the second quarter, ending the longest expansion in American history.
Nine of the 15 economists in the poll expect a recovery to begin in the third quarter."This is based on an assumption that we start to see restrictions eased at some point in 3Q [third quarter], which is of course highly speculative," said James Knightley, ING's chief international economist. Trump has made the record-breaking economic expansion and a 50-year low in unemployment a central part of his pitch to voters. The U.S. economy created 273,000 jobs in February, 100,000 more than expected, showing that employers were hiring at full steam before the pandemic restrictions kicked in.
"The recession's malaise may linger, keeping households feeling subdued in regards to their own economic/financial prospects even though the recovery has already started," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities.
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