Dry conditions combined with the forecasted above-normal temperatures for more than half of the country this spring will allow drought conditions to continue.
Based on short and long-range statistical and dynamic forecasts between March 17 and June 30, the agency forecasts below-normal precipitation in portions of the Central Great Basin, Southwest, Central and Southern Rockies and Central and Southern Great Plains, eastward to the Central Gulf Coast.
Dry conditions across the Southwest, Southern Plains and North to Central Plains will make for an elevated risk of wildfires, especially when accompanied with high winds. Drought conditions aren't expected to get better in the Southwest until the late summer monsoon rainfall begins, the NOAA forecasted.
Severe exceptional drought conditions have persisted throughout the West since summer of 2020, said Jon Gottschalck, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's chief of operational prediction branch. The drought conditions have expanded to the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. And short-term drought has recently developed across North Carolina through parts of Florida, the NOAA said.
Meanwhile, much of the eastern half of the country could see minor to moderate flooding this spring and above-normal ice breakup and flood potential is forecast in Alaska."Due to late fall and winter precipitation, which saturated soils and increased streamflows, major flood risk potential is expected for the Red River of the North in North Dakota and moderate flood potential for the James River in South Dakota," director of NOAA's National Water Center Ed Clark said.
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