The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly traded above 36,000 early Monday, a level forecast in a subsequently ridiculed 1999 book that had predicted a much faster rise to that milestone.
“Dow 36,000″ by journalist James K. Glassman and economist Kevin Hassett argued that stocks in 1999 were sharply undervalued and poised to quadruple. The rub, noted Jason Zweig in The Wall Street Journal on Monday, was that the book, published with the Dow trading above 10,000, said the move should occur “very quickly” or even “today,” while acknowledging it could take “three to five years.”
Glassman went on to serve as undersecretary of state for public affairs and public diplomacy in the George W. Bush administration and as the founding executive director of the George W. Bush Institute. Hassett, a former Federal Reserve economist, served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump administration.
Rogoff said the pair’s “extreme take” on the puzzle presented by the equity-risk premium, which is the mystery of why average stock returns seem high relative to safe bonds, underlined an important point: All three major indexes traded at intraday records in Monday’s session after logging record finishes Friday.
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