Donald Trump is struggling for at least three reasons: Joe Biden’s popularity, the defection of older voters, and his shrinking support among non-college-educated white voters
path to re-election has never looked more difficult. In early June his deficit in the polls against Joe Biden was “just” six percentage points. That may seem large, but it is close enough for the president to conceivably gain the ground required to win an electoral-college victory, even with a minority of the popular vote. He needs to hold Mr Biden to a two- to three-point margin to do so.
Mr Trump’s strategy worked last time round, when his opponent was already extremely unpopular. But from the start it looked a dicey bet against Mr Biden, who is far more popular than Mrs Clinton was. According to YouGov’s interviews of 1,500 Americans between June 21st and June 23rd, 43% of adults view the former vice-president favourably and only slightly more dislike him. Mr Trump’s ratings are much harsher: 42% like him and 53% do not.
It is unclear why white voters without a college degree have been the most likely to leave Mr Trump’s camp. Some clues may be found in this year’s Democratic presidential primary elections, in which non-college whites were also the most likely to leave Bernie Sanders’s wing of the party. It is likely that Mr Biden represents a more appealing candidacy to these voters than Mrs Clinton did.
Mr Trump’s allies have raised the possibility that he could win round enough undecided voters to muster an electoral-college victory again. Such voters are a natural crutch for the campaign: wishy-washy voters who last time held their breath until the “October surprise” from James Comey, thedirector who announced a resumption of the investigation into Mrs Clinton’s emails, perhaps came to Mr Trump’s rescue. But the president’s campaign faces even more bad news on this front.
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