The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.
BENGALURU - The dollar’s dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.
Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0% last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December. [ECILT/US] “The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they’re behind the rest of the world.”Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.
While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic’s first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically. When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.[EMRG/POLL]
The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5% to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month.
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