The U.S. dollar will weaken against most major currencies this year as the interest rate gap with its peers stops widening, putting the currency on the defensive after a multi-year run, according to a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists.
Despite starting the year on a weak footing, the dollar bounced back sharply in February, gaining nearly 3% for the month, on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve would take interest rates higher than previously thought.expectations
Median forecasts in the March 31-April 4 poll of 90 foreign exchange strategists showed the dollar ceding ground to all major currencies in a year. "The Fed will be very aware of those downside risks to growth going forward. So we kind of agree with the dovish repricing that's taking place in the U.S. rate markets. We think the Fed is closer to the end of their hiking cycle."
Up 2.5% this year, the euro was forecast to trade around current levels of $1.09 in the next one to three months and then strengthen another 2% to change hands around $1.12 in 12 months. "We are more optimistic than the consensus for the dollar," said Adam Cole, head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who described his position as moving from outright bullish over the past two years to something more nuanced.
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