Russia should avoid getting sucked into the Sino-American rivalry, warns Dmitri Trenin. If it doesn’t, it “could be as detrimental, or worse, for Russia than was its fateful entry into the first world war”
Hence in foreign policy—from Mr Obama’s pivot to Asia and Mr Trump’s declaring Beijing an adversary to Mr Biden’s preoccupation with major-power rivalry—the country has been sharply focused on China. Having passed from a happy offensive in the name of globalisation to an active defence in the name of protecting its number-one status, America will respond vigorously to the challenge that China presents.
It would be foolhardy to speculate on the likely outcome of the Sino-American rivalry. One might suggest only that, in the end, the United States will not defeat China. By the same token, China, even if it surpasses America in certain categories, will not replace it as the world’s new hegemon: China has no pretensions to universalism.
For Russia, securing and holding on to that status, however, will be challenging. Geopolitical issues include above all maintaining an equilibrium—though hardly equidistance—in the face of America-China confrontation. Being sucked into that fight could be as detrimental, or worse, for Russia than was its fateful entry into the first world war.
The confrontation with the United States notwithstanding, Russia’s principal challenges will be domestic. In the political realm, the looming hurdle will be managing the transition to a new regime that follows the current leader, Vladimir Putin, while avoiding the Scylla of instability and the Charybdis of deepening stagnation. In the realm of economics, unchaining the country’s potential—held back by monopolies and corruption from unaccountable, self-serving elites—is critical.
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