Bitcoin’s current term structure is in “contango,” a condition that exists when the price of bitcoin futures exceeds the price of bitcoin in spot markets. GWilliamsJr_CMT writes
Bitcoin’s current term structure is in “contango,” a condition that exists when the price of bitcoin futures exceeds the price of bitcoin in spot markets. Graphically, contango is represented by an upward-sloping futures curve. The opposite condition is “backwardation,” where futures prices are lower than spot prices, and represented by a downward-sloping price curve.
Backwardation in physical markets represents the opposite. Supply shortages of the asset will drive its price higher in spot markets than in futures markets, as demand in the short term outstrips supply. This is often a bullish sign. For bitcoin, where issues related to physical storage do not apply, a futures curve in contango simply represents increased buying in futures markets, and can indicate bullish sentiment.
BTC’s current funding rate is also signaling bullish. The BTC perpetual funding rate represents the rate that exchanges set for futures contracts. When funding rates are positive, traders who are long BTC contracts pay a fee to traders who are short.
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