Nicola Sturgeon will announce whether the last measures will end as planned on Monday amid a new surge.
Scottish ministers will discuss on Tuesday if the final Covid restrictions can be lifted as planned
The previous big Covid surge came in late December and early January when the faster spreading Omicron variant prompted a raft of new restrictions including strict attendance limits on large events, the closure of nightclubs and the return of social distancing in pubs and restaurants. While the daily case figures have in the past been a reasonable guide to infections, the shifting emphasis onto lateral flow tests rather than PCR testing has led to a suspicion that many positive lateral flow results are not being reported.
For much of the time, these ONS estimates mirror the daily cases data, but if you look closely there are some key differences. Fears about its increased transmissibility proved well-founded as it replaced Delta as the dominant strain, but for most people it caused less severe illness - which contributed to a fall in mortality. Vaccination and improved medical treatments have also driven down the death rate.
Even having had Covid is no guarantee you won't get it again - almost 10% of new cases are re-infections, according to Public Health Scotland. The chief medical officer, Prof Sir Gregor Smith, says hospital occupancy is particularly increasing for the over-60s, partly because of their increased vulnerability but also because older people tend to have longer hospital stays.
Ministers, however, face a dilemma - the pressures on hospitals are severe and the scale of new infections is exposing the most vulnerable to greater risk.
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