Infection levels have been rising, but this could be about to change - and change quite dramatically.
But could this be about to change - and change quite dramatically?
It is certainly the most optimistic at the moment, although what is noticeable is that the others produced by Imperial College London and University of Warwick also point to some degree of decrease being the most realistic scenario.To understand why this may happen, you have to look at what has been driving the infection rates in recent weeks.
All the new modelling is quick to stress that there is still a huge amount of uncertainty over exactly when a sustained drop will happen and how far case numbers will fall. He is, though, still worried about Christmas, which is a period when there is a lot of inter-generational mixing, and a possible rebound in Covid in the spring.The modelling does though raise a question over whether Plan B is needed at this stage.
He says the situation with Covid so finely balanced that a small swing towards greater mixing or more waning than expected could make a big difference.
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