Social distancing is tricky in a crowded slum. Regular hand-washing is hard when your home has no running water
coronavirus is causing havoc in rich countries. Often overlooked is the damage it will cause in poor ones, which could be even worse. Official data do not begin to tell the story. As of March 25th Africa had reported only 2,800 infections so far; India, only 650. But the virus is in nearly every country and will surely spread. There is no vaccine. There is no cure. A very rough guess is that, without a campaign of social distancing, between 25% and 80% of a typical population will be infected.
So covid-19 could soon be all over poor countries. And their health-care systems are in no position to cope. Many cannot deal with the infectious diseases they already know, let alone a new and highly contagious one. Health spending per head in Pakistan is one two-hundredth the level in America. Uganda has more government ministers than intensive-care beds. Throughout history, the poor have been hardest-hit by pandemics.
Granted, there are some reasons for hope. Poor countries are young—the median age in Africa is under 20—and the young appear less likely to die from an infection. The poorest are very rural: two-thirds of people in countries with incomes per head below $1,000 a year live in the countryside, compared with less than a fifth in rich countries. Farmers can grow yams without breathing viral droplets on each other. The climate may help.
Demand has collapsed for the commodities on which many emerging markets depend, from crude oil to fresh flowers. Tourism has tanked. No one wants to visit the Masai Mara or Machu Picchu just now. Foreign investors have pulled $83bn from emerging markets since the start of the crisis, the largest capital outflow ever recorded, says the Institute of International Finance, a trade group. Remittances, usually a safety-net in hard times, may tumble as migrants in rich countries lose their jobs.
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