Reopening cities will see an increase in congestion. A 1% decline in public transit use into Manhattan would translate into a 12% increase in car traffic, according to one estimate
, Manhattan holds 1.6m souls, a large number for a small island. In the morning over twice as many more rush in like a tide, filling up office blocks, coffee shops and spin classes. In the evening this tide drains back out over bridges and through tunnels, leaving just a thin residue of small-hours stop-outs and shift workers. The ebb and flow is shallower at weekends, and in summer. But it has held its rhythm for more than a century.
Over the century more and more cities grew large, dense and rich. By 2016 more than a fifth of humankind was living in cities of 1m people or more. The largest 300 metropolitan areas now generate half the world’s’s growth. And New York remains at the tip of the top tier. At almost $1.8trn itsis the largest of any city in the world. It is home to as dense a cluster of globally important firms as you can find anywhere.
But making mass transit safe in a world of social distancing is hard. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority , which is run by the state, is responsible for the city’s buses and a subway system which boasts more stations than any other in the world. It was already in poor financial and physical shape before the pandemic; during the covid closure it lost 90% of its riders and more than $2bn in revenue.
And if cities are resilient in theory, New York has also proved so in practice. The attacks which brought down the World Trade Centre in 2001 were estimated by the city’s comptroller to have cost $83bn-95bn in lives and property. Lower Manhattan, where the twin towers had stood, lost almost 30% of its office space, temporarily displacing 100,000 workers.
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