Coronavirus threatens to wipe out California's $21-billion surplus. And it could get worse.
For more than six years, through two governors and hundreds of lawmakers’ votes, California’s state government slowly built the largest cash reserve in its history — projected to total $21 billion by next summer.
But each prior collapse in government funding was a relatively slow-moving disaster. Even the global recession that began in 2008, generally seen as the most quickly unfolding crisis, gave lawmakers time to take corrective measures. For much of the 1990s and 2000s, analysts often compared California’s budget to a roller coaster ride of sky-high revenue collections followed by harrowing shortfalls and then back again. Many of those dollars came from the investment profits earned by the state’s wealthiest taxpayers. The volatile nature of tax collections meant little certainty for healthcare, education and social services.
“We haven’t seen anything like this,” said Chris Hoene, executive director of the California Budget and Policy Center. “It’s likely we are going to need every penny of the reserves.” One notable change from the past recessions is the existence of the federal Affordable Care Act, which eliminated some of the more stringent eligibility rules for Medi-Cal and also created health insurance exchanges such as Covered California,which offer subsidies to low- and middle-income citizens.But those costs, while likely to be underwritten by the federal government, will also require more state tax revenue spending.
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