All the risk assessment and economic modeling in the world is futile if it can't anticipate the one variable that matters most - particularly if it's a pandemic.
The problem with economic forecasts is that they can't anticipate unforeseen events like the coronavirus pandemic.
"Overall, the changes underlying the Great Moderation appear intact, and we see the economy as structurally less recession-prone today," Goldman economists"While new risks could emerge, none of the main sources of recent recessions — oil shocks, inflationary overheating, and financial Imbalances — seem too concerning for now. As a result, the prospects for a soft landing look better than widely thought.
"My guess is, if we have a recession, what's going to cause it is some shock that we don't know of now," said Malkiel, author of the 1973 book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street." . They're calling for negative growth in the nation's gross domestic product, but they're calling that a "novel-global recession" since it will only be temporary, according to their forecast.
UBS analysts warned of a coming wave of credit downgrades for U.S. stocks, which may still be on the way as a pandemic grinds portions of the economy to a halt.
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