Corona Capital: Blackstone slashes its offer for NIBC, U.S. jobs data proves humbling for pundits, British pub stocks soar on reopening news. Read the latest:
Steve Schwarzman’s buyout group in February struck a deal to buy Dutch bank NIBC for 1.3 billion euros. It has been clear for a while that the pre-pandemic price would have to be renegotiated. But Blackstone seems to have turned adversity into opportunity,Though it’s risky to take a bank private at the start of a downturn, Schwarzman’s dealmakers have a margin of safety. At 7 euros a share, Blackstone is paying investors like J.C.
Monthly economic reports don’t normally deal with such dramatic change, definitional uncertainty or distortion from massive government stimulus. The result, though, is that odd data points can easily appear to contradict other statistics. Financial pundits can still try to find trends – but with a big dose of humility. to reopen pubs and restaurants on June 22 lifted stocks in chain Mitchells & Butlers by more than 15% while Marston’s, which also has breweries, rose 12%.
Analysts are more sober. They predict a revenue decline of 30% for Marston’s and 36% for Mitchells & Butlers in the year ending in September, according to Refinitiv. Social distancing measures, even if reduced to keeping punters a metre apart, are going to eat into capacity, and many punters will stick to parks and gardens this summer. Investors, in their thirst for good news, are getting ahead of themselves. Boris Johnson may be following Angela Merkel’s lead.
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