What makes a healthy inflation rate would depend on GDP growth and, more importantly, income growth, says OCBC chief economist Selena Ling.
New: You can now listen to articles.SINGAPORE: One does not need a Master of Economics to have felt acutely the recent impact of inflation. In the last few years, prices of everything from kaya toast toper cent from 2020 to 2023, about double the 1.1 per cent seen in the pre-pandemic period of 2015 to 2019., slightly lower compared with 3.3 per cent in December 2023 and a far cry from the 5.5 per cent peak seen in January 2023 and February 2023.
The main drivers of inflation were food, transport, and housing and utilities which accounted for 21.1 per cent, 17.1 per cent, and 24.8 per cent respectively of the consumer price index. This could pave the way for other Asian central banks to embark on their own monetary policy easing as well. However, the inflation trajectory could be bumpy, as seen in the hotter-than-expected January consumer price index reading in the US, even as the unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 3.9 per cent in February.
OCBC’s 2024 GDP growth forecast is 2 per cent, a modest improvement from 1.1 per cent in 2023. This is predicated on a global monetary policy easing cycle and stabilisation in both the global semiconductor cycle and the Chinese economy. By sectors, manufacturing is tipped to stage a recovery to around 2 per cent growth, with construction staying resilient at close to 5 per cent. The services sector is expected to grow 2 to 3 per cent, as the pickup in visitor arrivals will offset some of the domestic belt-tightening brought on by cooling labour market conditions.
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