Wind power may generate roughly 40% of North America's electricity by 2050, and solar power another 32%, if current and projected capacity development plans proceed as expected, data from risk assessment firm DNV shows.
With hydropower expected to generate an additional 11.5% and nuclear a further 7.3%, over 90% of the region's electricity could come from clean sources by 2050, helping the United States and Canada realize their goal of net-zero emissions and becoming clean energy leaders by mid-century.
But for wind power generation to expand by the degree needed to attain emissions targets, more substantial cost cutting and streamlining is required throughout the entire supply chain. Known as the levelized cost of energy before subsidy, the current cost for a solar photovoltaic farm is estimated at 3.4 U.S. cents per kilowatt hour , according to DNV.That compares to around 8.6 cents for a natural gas-fired plant, and more than 18 cents for a coal-fired facility.
Since onshore wind sites cost around 4.2 cents per kWh, and fixed offshore wind farms 4.84 cents per kWh, wind power looks like the most attractive option for year-round clean power potential.According to DNV's Energy Transition Outlook, North American electricity generation from all wind sources will jump from just under 500,000 gigawatt hours in 2023 to 950,000 GWh by 2030, to 1.9 million GWh in 2040 and 3.3 million GWh by 2050.
Power developers are also struggling to complete projects on time amid lengthy delivery times for key components such as generators, turbine blades and high powered magnets. This combination of project delays and rising component prices add up to higher wind power generation costs than other sources of power, and are a key challenge for North American power developers looking to rapidly roll out more renewable energy supplies.To help shield developers from further cost climbs and delays, a sharp increase in the local production of wind power components will be needed within North America.
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