Column-Bank of Japan shift exposes global bond cracks: McGeever

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Column-Bank of Japan shift exposes global bond cracks: McGeever
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ORLANDO, Fla. : Japan risks pulling the rug from under the much-touted 'year of the bond.'Further changes to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control (YCC) policy could bring more Japanese money back home, against a backdrop of rising hedging costs that are already weighing on domestic investors' demand fo

Further changes to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy could bring more Japanese money back home, against a backdrop of rising hedging costs that are already weighing on domestic investors' demand for overseas bonds.

Around half of that is in U.S. assets such as Treasuries, agency debt and corporate bonds, and around a third in euro zone securities. Unloading even a fraction of them could have a discernible impact on flows, prices and yields. Wholesale liquidation of Japanese investors' foreign bond holdings is unlikely barring a"very substantial" rise in Japanese yields from here. The reality may be less eye-catching, but no less powerful over the long term.

Graphic 2: Japanese holdings of overseas bonds,https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/egpbymqnmvq/Setser1.jpg Currency hedging is done through FX and interest rate derivatives markets, and generally boils down to borrowing on a short-term basis to buy longer-dated securities. Last year, Japanese investor selling picked up pace as U.S. and euro zone borrowing costs rose. Setser and Etra estimate that foreign bond sales probably neared $200 billion.

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