War game findings for hypothetical 2026 invasion put total casualties in tens of thousands in 'pyrrhic victory' for Washington and its allies. Project did not explore effects such losses might have on Chinese politics, but Communist Party would risk hold on power, report says.
War game findings for hypothetical 2026 invasion put total casualties in tens of thousands in"pyrrhic victory" for Washington and its allies.
In “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan”, the authors cautioned the US might experience “a pyrrhic victory” in which it was likely to suffer more in the long run than “the ‘defeated’ Chinese”. 2023 was likely to be “the most transformative” year in US force posture in the Indo-Pacific region in a generation to counter China’s increasingly assertive and coercive military behaviour, deter in no uncertain terms a Taiwan attack and grapple with Beijing’s nuclear build-up, senior US military officials said last month.
In most modelled scenarios, Washington, Taipei and Tokyo would secure victory in maintaining an autonomous Taiwan. However, a defence of Taiwan mounted by the US and Japan would come at a high cost, according to the report. In a military conflict with Beijing, Washington was likely to experience arguably its severest losses since World War Two, it stated.
The US would typically lose two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants in most scenarios, the report added.
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