China's imports unexpectedly fell in March as COVID-19 curbs across large parts of the country hampered freight arrivals and weakened domestic demand, while export growth slowed, prompting analysts to expect a worsening in trade in the second quarter.
The softer trade figures are likely to reinforce expectations of more policy support from the government, with an adviser on Wednesday calling for cuts in banks' reserve requirements and interest rates to boost a flagging economy.
"Due to the severe disruptions in factory operations, road transport and port congestion as a result of the worst COVID-19 wave and the most severe lockdowns since spring 2020, we expect export growth in dollar terms to slump to 0.0% year-on-year in April, while import growth is likely to drop further to minus 3.0%," Nomura said in a note.
"The pressure on the global economy is likely to drive down commodity prices over the medium-term, which would hit China's exports, in both volume and value, in the second half," said Zheng.
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