According to a rough tally by The Economist, 15 of the 17 prominent Chinese economists who have waded into the fray have argued against monetisation
ever describe the Chinese central bank as Germanic. After all, China’s broad money supply has tripled over the past decade alone, the kind of expansion that would send shivers through Germany’s inflation hawks. But listen closely and Teutonic inflections can be heard in Beijing. A ruckus about how to finance this year’s yawning fiscal deficit has brought out China’s own inflation hawks.
Liu Shangxi, the head of a think-tank linked to the finance ministry, made a radical proposal in late April to tackle the problem: theshould monetise the fiscal deficit, in effect printing money to buy and hold new government bonds that make no coupon payments. He rebutted the standard objection that deficit monetisation could lead to spiralling inflation, saying that a decade of quantitative easing abroad had shown that to be false.
Most have noted that, unlike America or Japan, China still has space to cut interest rates. The yield on ten-year government bonds, for instance, is about 2.75%. But many have also described the idea of monetisation in much more alarming terms. Li Daokui, a former member of the’s monetary committee, called it a trap that will undermine the yuan.
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