China didn’t experience a big Omicron surge when most of the rest of the world did—and didn’t get all that natural immunity as a reward for enduring the surge.
—the list goes on. Now some mayors—who national leaders have authorized to set local rules on crowds, business capacity, travel, mask-wearing and testing—are easing up on some COVID-related restrictions.
The virus could surge through the population until enough people catch and survive COVID, and build up natural antibodies to block the easiest transmission pathways. Widespread natural antibodies, combined with the less protective and durable antibodies from vaccines, should eventually result in a fragile—but hopefully sustainable—sort of endemicity, like we’re already seeing in much of the world. The critical question is how much worse things would get before they got better.
How bad it gets could depend on a number of factors. How many mayors respond to local protests by lifting restrictions, and how much they lift restrictions. How everyday people respond in the weeks after their cities begin reopening. How well the Chinese COVID vaccines have held up, nearly two years after the first jab. And how quickly authorities can administer vaccine boosters to the most vulnerable segment of the Chinese population, the elderly.
Part of the problem for the Chinese in particular, Gostin explained, is that the best Chinese vaccines are not as effective as the best Western vaccines. China’s most popular vaccines, Sinopharm and CoronaVac, are both conventional formulations with inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus as their main ingredient. Both were around 75 percent effective when first administered, compared to 90 percent or better for the leading messenger-RNA vaccines that many other countries administer.
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