The case against a balance sheet recession
Start with precautionary savings. China’s soft consumption numbers evoke Keynes’ paradox of thrift, in which precautionary high savings in a downturn hurt demand further, encouraging still more savings. Wolfe thinks “zero-Covid PTSD”, including the lethally abrupt reopening process, has pushed up the savings rate, hurting demand, especially for durable goods.
Christopher Beddor and Thomas Gatley of Gavekal Dragonomics take a similar line in a recent note. They point out that consumer, but not business, confidence is worse than what economic fundamentals would predict, probably reflecting lingering pandemic effects. Their chart below shows that while sentiment in central bank survey data usually tracks real activity, the two have come apart lately:
The most likely reason [for poor sentiment] is simply that China’s economy continues to be volatile; if it records several months of consistent improvement, confidence will further normalise and households will revert to earlier consumption and savings rates, as well as deploy those savings in a less risk-averse manner.
日本 最新ニュース, 日本 見出し
Similar News:他のニュース ソースから収集した、これに似たニュース記事を読むこともできます。
'You'll never see me again' - Man Utd hero Ferdinand makes Man City vowThe former Manchester United defender was not prepared to accept the possibility that Pep Guardiola's side could rise to new levels of success
続きを読む »
Newry pool closure plans discussed behind closed doors again'It is understood that repairs are needed to loose tiling on the pool floor with the swimming facility required to be drained for work to be carried out.'
続きを読む »
Tv and live stream details for Kilmarnock vs CelticCeltic won the Treble last season and Rodgers has his eyes on a clean sweep again
続きを読む »
Babbacombe Cliff Railway closes again for repair workBabbacombe Cliff Railway reopened recently after a 10-month closure but has run into difficulties.
続きを読む »
Chris Eubank Jr's pride and changed mindset – 'He can't allow that to happen again'Super-lightweight contender Harlem Eubank, who knows his cousin as a fighter as well as anyone, provides an insight into Chris Eubank Jrs changed mindset going into his rematch with Liam Smith; Smith vs Eubank Jr II takes place on September 2 live on Sky Sports Box Office
続きを読む »
EFL goals and round-up: Ipswich, Leicester win again; Wrexham draw 5-5Ipswich and Leicester maintained their perfect starts in the Sky Bet Championship, making it three wins from three | Bolton were stunned 4-0 at home by Wigan in League One | Wrexham and Swindon drew 5-5 in League Two
続きを読む »