If Xi Jinping ever leads a victory parade through Taiwan’s capital, it will mark his ascension into China’s pantheon of immortal rulers, alongside Mao Zedong and the great unifying emperors
why they must control the island of Taiwan, China’s communist rulers tell a story of past shame and future vindication. “The Taiwan question arose as a result of weakness and chaos in our nation, and it will be resolved as national rejuvenation becomes a reality,” declares a State Council white paper on Taiwan policy that was issued in August.
The humbling of America would reshape the security order that has kept peace in the Asia-Pacific for the past half-century. In a worst case, Taiwan’s fall would follow armed conflict between China and America, potentially dragging in neighbours like Japan, as Chinese missiles pounded American air bases on Japanese soil. In China’s preferred scenarios Taiwanese elites would cut a deal or have given in before America even had time to send in the Seventh Fleet.
A second diplomat adds that China does not need to win every argument: sowing confusion will do. He suggests that China’s influence networks, and its willingness to use economic coercion, have divided Asia’s political, business and media elites. As a result, many governments would struggle to craft coherent responses to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
In contrast, China refuses to talk to the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party now in power, treating its leader, President Tsai Ing-wen, as a dangerous radical, though in truth she is a moderate and pragmatic former trade lawyer. Alas for China, even thehas little choice. Taiwanese voters watched as China trampled Hong Kong’s version of one country, two systems after months of anti-government protests in 2019.
Hong Kong was only ever a partial democracy, even as British rule ended in 1997, and never independent. In contrast Taiwan’s people have freely chosen their president and parliament for a generation: a rebuke to those who call democracy unsuited to polities with Chinese roots. When asked about their identity, 63.7% of islanders call themselves Taiwanese, up from 17.6% in 1992.
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