The buds have already reached “peduncle elongation” and we’ve moved our peak bloom forecast forward: It's now March 19 to 23.
The weather in Washington has turned chilly but its cherry blossom buds — aided by unseasonably mild weather in February and early March — may be within a week or so of peak bloom.
Because the buds are so far along so soon, we need to bump our peak bloom forecast forward by several days. We now predict peak bloom will occur between March 19 and 23, instead of between. Our initial forecast was based on computer model projections for more intense and enduring cold weather than we’re actually experiencing.Nudged ahead by sunshine and highs in the 50s last week, the buds hit Stage 4 out of 6 on Saturday, known as peduncle elongation.
While the weather has turned chillier than normal since late last week and will remain cool through Wednesday,, which may be enough to push the buds to their penultimate stage known as “puffy white.” Once this fifth stage is reached, peak bloom is typically 3 to 5 days away. While some chilly nights are forecast in the week ahead, with low temperatures dipping close to freezing in a few instances, we don’t think they’ll fall enough to harm the buds. Temperatures need to drop below 28 degrees for several hours to cause damage;when there was snow and temperatures in the low 20s after the buds hit Stage 4.
Peduncle Elongation! It's not funny, it's science. We're at the 4th of 6 stages on the path to peak bloom.
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