The top two teams in each of the eight first-round groups advance to the knockout round. Canada (1-0-1) could finish anywhere from first to third in its pool.
The good news is the permutations favour the seventh-ranked Olympic champions. They will advance to the knockout round with a win or draw, and could even progress with a defeat, provided No. 40 Nigeria loses to No. 22 Ireland and the tiebreakers fall the right way.
Australia has not gone out in the group stage since 2003. Canada’s last early exit was in 2011, when it failed to win a game and finished last in the tournament in a disastrous showing. Finishing atop the pool means avoiding the winner of Group D, with No. 4 England in the driver’s seat there. The Group B winner will face the runner-up in Group D, which is currently No. 13 Denmark by virtue of a tiebreaker over No. 14 China.
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