What's the difference between a 'toss-up state' and a 'bellwether state'? It's actually a crucial distinction:
as toss-ups: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And since Democrats have the advantage in states worth only 232 electoral votes and Republicans have the advantage in states worth only 204, Cook is therefore also expecting these six states to be bellwethers.History suggests you can largely trust those bellwether ratings, too — though you should expect the election to still throw us a few curveballs.
The toss-up ratings, on the other hand, should not be taken literally — at least not at this stage. And that’s because, while handicappers are pretty good at assessing, it is more challenging to forecast the national political environment so far in advance. But in a way, that’s OK; the bellwethers are really what matter.
It doesn’t really matter if, say, Virginia or Texas is decided by just 1 point, because if either one of those scenarios comes to pass, the election is likely a landslide. Knowing the bellwethers in advance is arguably far more valuable because we can then focus our energy on watching who is leading in them — because whoever wins the bellwethers wins the election.Expected toss-ups were those that Cook rated as toss-ups as of mid-June.
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