Opinion: California must prepare for a recession
First, despite strong jobs growth of 339,000 nationally in May, it’s slowing compared to a year ago.
“It’s going to continue slowing the rest of the year,” he said. One silver lining is that job growth is at least expected to continue, rather an go negative.“The Federal Reserve played the white knight and came to the rescue,” during the COVID doldrums of 2020, he said.Both the up and down spikes were something the United States hasn’t seen in generations.The record rise in the money supply contributed to inflation peaking at 9.1% a year ago.
By the end of the year, the country will see 1.2 million starts, compared to 1.7 million in 2022, according to Doti. For perspective, the 1.2 million housing starts is still more than double what it was at the nadir of the Great Recession over a decade ago.The fourth factor cited by Doti is a technical change called a “negative interest rate spread,” meaning the 10-year Treasury bond is less than the Federal Funds rate.
Also lurking in the background are factors like the excess savings that Americans put away during the COVID pandemic. According to Doti, Americans had $3 trillion in excess savings by the end of 2021. Those excess savings have since dwindled to $1 trillion by last measure and are expected to be spent by the third quarter of this year.
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