Britain will leave the European Union with a free trade deal, economists polled ...
LONDON - Britain will leave the European Union with a free trade deal, economists polled by Reuters predicted, attaching the joint lowest possibility of a disorderly Brexit since monthly polling began on it over two years ago.
“We continue to think the most likely outcome of the election is a small Conservative majority of under 60,” said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Investors might be relieved by that outcome initially, given that it would pave the way for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to be ratified quickly.”
Flipping back in to second spot from third was the more extreme option of leaving without a deal and trading under World Trade Organization rules. It will trade around $1.30 at the end of the year and at $1.33 in six months, the poll of nearly 60 foreign exchange strategists found. In a year, the pound will be 3% higher at $1.35, better than a prediction of $1.32 made a month ago.
With uncertainty likely to continue curtailing consumer and business spending, the economy will grow a modest 1.0% next year and then pick up to 1.5% in 2021, the wider poll of over 70 economists showed.
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