From Breakingviews: Whatever happens after Vladimir Putin’s humiliation by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the rest of the world sees the Russian president as wounded. That perception may matter more than the power games unfolding in Moscow, says pierrebri
Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District amid the group's pullout from the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY - RC2WP1ALRNELat the hand of his former protégé Yevgeny Prigozhin, the rest of the world sees the Russian president as wounded. That perception may matter more than the power games now unfolding in Moscow.
The worst outcome would be a period of long uncertainty with different clans vying for power in Moscow. Russia is not a major global economic power - its GDP is smaller than Italy’s or Canada’s, and large parts of its economy have been uncoupled from the developed world since the invasion of Ukraine early last year. Even so, chaos at the top would make its government even more unpredictable than it has been since Putin annexed Crimea in 2014.
Yet global powers should also prepare for the best. A major political crisis could bring to the Kremlin a leadership team that accepts the futility of continuing Putin’s conflict in Ukraine. An offer of talks about a Russian withdrawal could prompt the United States and Europe to dangle the possibility of a gradual easing of sanctions.
The confusion born from Prigozhin’s failed mutiny will continue for weeks, if not months. For the rest of the world, however, Russia’s future has already changed.Heavily armed Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group withdrew from the Russian city of Rostov under a deal that halted their rapid advance to Moscow on June 24.
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