Breakingviews - India app ban inflames Sea’s top fire

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Breakingviews - India app ban inflames Sea’s top fire
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Breakingviews - Breakingviews - India app ban inflames Sea’s top fire

A person walks in front of a signage of Shopee, the e-commerce arm of Southeast Asia's Sea Ltd, at their office in Singapore, March 5, 2021. REUTERS/Edgar Su - RC2X4M9XEO9Von Monday, roughly 18% of its market value, following a Bloomberg report, citing unnamed sources, noting an Indian ban on its popular mobile hit “Free Fire". Official details are pending, but the move looks to be part of a fresh clampdown on apps seen as having Chinese origin.

Sea might have grounds for appeal: shareholders yesterday approved the company's proposals that would boost founder Forrest Li's voting power to 60%, while reducing Tencent's voting stake from roughly 23% last March to less than 10% by converting its super-voting stock into ordinary shares. Diluting the Chinese titan's control could appease the Indian government.

But investor overreaction spotlights Sea’s bigger problem. Analysts at Morgan Stanley reckon Free Fire in India generated just a tenth of the company’s total video-games sales last year, roughly $475 million. So the direct hit to Sea’s estimated 2021 top line might be just 5%, per Refinitiv. The sharper selloff dragging Sea shares 65% below last year’s peak suggests broader concerns about Free Fire, the company’s cash cow, and its future growth prospects.

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