Glencore boss Gary Nagle is minting money from coal while prices are high, but planning to keep production of the fossil fuel roughly steady until 2025. It’s a plan that risks pleasing no one, while also dirtying the company’s valuation, says KarenKKwok
annual production steady at around 110 million tonnes up to 2025. Using the prodigious cash flows from that business, he can reward shareholders while also funding investments in copper and cobalt. Over the longer term, he’ll then start shutting coal mines, with at least a dozen closures planned before 2035.
The risk is that Nagle’s compromise pleases neither the green crowd nor the others. That’s arguably reflected in an enterprise value that’s roughly 4 times forecast EBITDA for the next 12 months, based on Refinitiv data, compared with 4.5 and 5.2 for Anglo and Rio respectively. Just over of Glencore’s investors supported Nagle’s climate strategy last year. He should brace for a lower number in 2023.Glencore on Feb. 15 said its adjusted EBITDA rose 60% in 2022 to $34.1 billion, a record for the London-listed miner. The group’s commodity trading unit posted $6.8 billion of EBITDA.
EBITDA from Glencore’s coal operations rose to $17.9 billion from $5.2 billion the previous year due to increasing prices. Glencore said it would pay total dividends to shareholders of $5.6 billion, and also buy back $1.5 billion of its own stock.Editing by Liam Proud and Oliver Taslic
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